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An individual made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro just before it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from confidential information of the US operation.

Changing Odds in Forecasts

Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the end of January rose in the period preceding former President Trump stated on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized.

One account, which registered on the site last month and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32,537.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification.

Market Signals Before Public Statement

Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday.

But the market's assessment had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sudden change in market sentiment just before the social media post was made.

"This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," commented Dennis Kelleher.

A handful of other individuals also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture.

Legal Questions Intensifies

Elected officials are beginning to pay attention.

Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week aims to prohibit government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market.

Market Background

Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs.

Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. But it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.

Trading on insider information is against the law in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting arena.

A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."