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At first, Trump gave the impression to adopt a resolute stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making statements of "serious repercussions" in August in case Vladimir Putin carried on hindering ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually introduced major restrictions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially impacted Putin's capacity to support his war effort in the region.

Yet, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly created by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European input, Trump has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Aggression

This initiative would in practice favor the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Despite ringing declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate background, the former president seems to treat the war as a simple territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a section of Ukrainian land will satisfy the leader. However, Russia's war is not only about occupying a destroyed area of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that his growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

While maintaining in position the presently split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the proposal would force the nation to surrender the entire this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unable to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this concession would render Ukraine's military defenses severely weakened.

The area is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that are a essential barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital in case he subsequently opt to restart the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a action that would enable future fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to cut the numbers of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of this lower number. Notably, the initiative imposes no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray the nation's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, Trump's plan declares: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin endanger his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should we believe this commitment now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international protection assurances. Although the initiative warns of a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the details vary from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not just block Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Putin from restoring his diminished forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "major, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a armed reaction. But different from a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's primary defense against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the willingness of alliance members, like the US administration, to respond through arms to Russia's aggression, something they have {not