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Breaking into the world’s most-visited museum in the middle of the day, taking eight items of invaluable Napoleonic jewellery and vanishing into Paris traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, carried out for international notoriety and ensuing movie adaptations.

Specialists who study trends in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s heist at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the most recent in a string of quick-hit thefts focused more on the material value of precious stones or metals than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a trend that has emerged over the last decade in Europe, the UK and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of lesser importance to the criminals.

“One might wonder why thieves who want to steal valuable jewellery are entering a world-famous museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “It's straightforward: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is better protected.”

A series of violent jewellery shop thefts indicate that many outlets have beefed up their security in recent years, with security personnel on their premises and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Museums, meanwhile, look vulnerable, partly because of the in-built reason of being accessible institutions in older structures, and also the financial situation in many western countries.

“After the pandemic, governments across the world have reduced spending on law enforcement and the arts funding,” said Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how at risk our institutions have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The theft of the objects – including necklaces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the crown of Empress Eugénie featuring thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive diadem once owned by a royal that the robbers dropped by the roadside on their way out – has inevitably drawn comparisons with the historical theft of the Mona Lisa from the Louvre, performed by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better points of reference may be the 2019 theft of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over €113m, the taking of a multi-million pound valuable object from a UK landmark the same year, the recent heist of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of thefts of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would find it hard to find a buyer. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the legal marketplace”, said an art crime researcher of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They would be immediately recognised, particularly given the cultural authorities has released images of the items. Even a individual buyer or an auction house would want to see documentation confirming legal possession before handling such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, museums were often hesitant to announce publicly about the loss of well-known works of art and would remain quiet out of shame. These days, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the storage and selling of taken items is risky business for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes valueless, and you have to devise a plan to conceal it, perhaps by passing it around difficult criminal actors,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to cash in a reward.”

For comparable factors, an art detective said it was highly improbable that the robbery had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from films,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It’s all around the world and in all the newspapers. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you end up in prison. You cannot show it to your acquaintances, you cannot leave it to your children.”

Modifying taken items by dismantling or reshaping does lower the value. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with considerable risk because modern cutting techniques give gems a bigger and lighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or reduce value for a coverup.

Importantly, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the proof of the crime. “My guess is that the robbers will try to take the items to places with gem knowledge like Israel, India or even as nearby as a city, and find someone to cut out the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about protective steps at the institution, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be released next month pointing out “considerable” and “ongoing” delays in updating systems and noting that security cameras were lacking in many rooms. But security experts say displaying precious items in older structures with a steady stream of guests comes with risks that are impossible to remove entirely.

“Historic buildings are more difficult to secure,” explained an art crime professor. “Many of them have nice big street-facing windows that allows for thieves to escape, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you are unable to install them with secure windows.”

The best protective measures for structures should be designed “as a stronghold”, noted a security advisor. “There should be multiple levels to deter intruders.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with state-of-the-art external CCTV cameras or integrated vibration sensors that raise alarm about a broken glass in real time, but old museums may be hesitant to uglify their exteriors. Detection devices can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as crowds stomp through a museum.

The timing of the robbery, which took place between morning hours local time, was typical of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “It's logical why thefts tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when guards rotate and before the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Technological progress may have introduced new devices that can raise the alarm more quickly and effectively, but it has also provided thieves new tools with which to bypass security measures. In the city, the thieves accessed the museum’s first-floor window with a mobile equipment and breached a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the discussion in France about the historic structure had mostly focused on crowd control in the past decade, and less on security.

The museum has an on-site brigade of about 50 full-time emergency personnel, but their mission is mostly to safeguard the artworks from fires and flooding. “There is no quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all depends on political will and money, and currently France lacks sufficient resources.”