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It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough proposition to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus Manchester United.

His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
• The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.